Energy • In a market under pressure, soaring consumption is eclipsing the energy transition
Since 2015 the energy sector has been marked by fluctuating prices and market concentration around dominant players. The sector has borne the full brunt of the effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. While the share of renewable energies is growing, the trend has been an accumulation rather than a real transition.
- Emissions from electricity generation have followed a constant upward trend since 2015, except for the fall triggered by the pandemic in 2020.
- Since 2015, renewable capacity additions have outstripped fossil capacity additions (respectively) accounting for three quarters and one quarter of the capacity added between 2019 and 2022). But on average, three times as much renewable capacity is needed to replace one unit of fossil capacity.
- The average carbon intensity of electricity generation has therefore fallen overall since 2015, but the rise in global demand is outstripping the decarbonization of the mix. Where it is taking place, the transition away from coal is benefiting renewables as much as gas.
- Government subsidies are keeping coal alive in China, India and Indonesia, while oil companies are still investing far too little in renewables to begin a genuine transition away from oil.